When to Sell Scrap Metal: Timing the LME for Better Payouts

Scrap metal prices in Singapore follow the London Metal Exchange (LME) with a few days’ lag. Over a year, copper or aluminium can swing 20-30%. That raises a natural question: can you time your sales for better payouts?

The honest answer: sometimes. For larger loads and patient sellers, timing can add 5-15% to the final payout. For small loads and most sellers, holding isn’t worth the hassle.

What Drives LME Prices

• Copper: global construction, EV manufacturing, Chinese industrial demand. Ranks, grids, renewables are copper-intensive — bullish long-term.
• Aluminium: auto and aerospace demand, energy costs (smelting is energy-intensive).
• Nickel / stainless steel: battery demand, Indonesia supply, EV market.
• Ferrous scrap / HMS: regional construction cycles, steel mill demand, iron ore spot prices.

Short-Term Signals

• Commodity ETFs (CPER for copper, DBA for metals basket): mirror LME moves in real-time.
• China manufacturing PMI: released monthly; drives metal demand expectations.
• US dollar index (DXY): stronger USD typically = weaker LME metal prices (metals priced in USD).

If you see copper rallying hard for 2-3 weeks, that’s a good window to sell. If it’s been sliding for a month, consider holding — or sell in tranches.

The Tranche Strategy

For larger loads (tonnes of copper, for instance), instead of guessing the top, sell in tranches. Example: 3 tonnes of copper, sell 1 tonne now, 1 tonne in 2 weeks, 1 tonne in 4 weeks. You get the average market price over that window — no huge winners or losers.

When to Just Sell

• Small loads (under 200 kg copper equivalent): the dollar difference from timing is small; holding costs (storage, theft risk, oxidation on copper) eat into it.
• Mixed grades: mixed cable, construction mixed ferrous. These don’t swing much relative to storage cost.
• Unsecured storage: if your scrap isn’t locked up, theft risk dominates everything.
• Urgent cash needs: don’t speculate with money you need now.

Seasonal Patterns

Rough patterns we’ve seen in Singapore scrap over recent years:

• Chinese New Year slowdown (Jan-Feb): prices often soften as mills close
• Post-CNY restock (Mar-Apr): prices often firm up
• Mid-year (June-July): steady, tied to global demand
• End of year (Nov-Dec): can see year-end positioning moves

Not investment advice — just observations.

Our View

For most Singapore sellers, the answer is: sell when you’re ready, at a fair LME-benchmarked rate, to a licensed buyer. Trying to time the market requires attention, storage, and comfort with the risk that prices move against you. Molten Steel posts rates weekly; if you see them rising week-over-week, that’s usually a sell signal for patient holders.